An extraordinary prediction of voting in the next General Election has been made by the Professor of Political Science at Cardiff University, Roger Scully .
It indicates that Stephen Doughty is facing defeat in Cardiff South and Penarth – and that the Conservatives are poised to take the seat from Labour.
Cardiff South and Penarth has been solidly Labour since the constituency was first created in 1983 . It was first won by former Labour Prime Minister James “Sunny Jim” Callaghan who presided over the chaotic “winter of discontent” of 1979/80.
Succeeding him – in what was regarded as a safe Labour seat – was Alun Michael – but there was a steady drop in support for the Labour Party over the years.
Alun Michael resigned in 2012 to stand for election as South Wales Police and Crime Commissioner – but already had a protege in mind to take his place – Stephen Doughty.
Doughty a “lifelong family friend” of Alun Michael was selected to stand in Cardiff South and Penarth in a by-election in 2012 after a controversial selection procedure.
The Western Mail newspaper reported that Alun Michael had personally intervened with then Labour leader Ed Miliband to ensure that Doughty (who’d originally not even been shortlisted for the seat) was put on the list.
Alun Michael said at the time “my purpose in doing so was to stop a candidate from outside being imposed on the local party” and claimed he had been attempting to prevent a “stitch-up”.
As far as the June 8th General Election is concerned, Professor Roger Scully has already said in the New Statesman : “For almost a century, general elections in Wales have been about Labour victories. Labour got the most votes in Wales for the first time in the 1922 general election, and it has done so at every general election since then. But this could just be the election where that formidable run comes to an end. Yes, things really are that bad for Labour.”
Professor Scully has now taken the electoral swing since the last General Election ( as shown in the first two major UK opinion polls conducted by ICM and YouGov) and has projected that swing across Wales. By doing that, he says, it looks as though Labour is set to lose Cardiff South and Penarth on June 8th .
Other seats which the Conservatives could capture from Labour are Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside, Newport West, Newport East and Cardiff West ….as well as Cardiff South & Penarth.
Meanwhile Labour is also apparently set to lose the Island of Anglesey – Ynys Mon – to Plaid Cymru.
A new Welsh opinion poll is due to be published on Monday – the results of which are promised to be “dramatic”.