Labour South Wales Police and Crime Commissioner Alun Michael (left) and his protege Stephen Doughty – Labour MP for Cardiff South and Penarth  – may not be smiling on June 8th

An extraordinary prediction of voting in the next General Election has been made by the Professor of Political Science at Cardiff University, Roger Scully .

It indicates that Stephen Doughty is facing defeat in Cardiff South and Penarth  – and that the Conservatives are poised to take the seat from Labour.

Former Labour Prime Minister and MP for Cardiff South and Penarth “Sunny Jim” Callaghan

Cardiff South and Penarth has been solidly Labour since the constituency was first created in 1983 . It was first won by former Labour Prime Minister James “Sunny Jim” Callaghan who presided over the chaotic “winter of discontent” of 1979/80

Succeeding him –  in what was regarded as a safe Labour seat –  was Alun Michael – but there was a steady drop in support for the Labour Party over the years.

Alun Michael resigned  in 2012 to stand for election as South Wales Police and Crime Commissioner – but already had a protege in mind to take his place – Stephen Doughty.

Stephen Doughty (left) with Alun Michael who the Western Mail reported had pressed for Doughty to succeed him in 2012.

Doughty  a “lifelong family friend” of Alun Michael was selected to stand in Cardiff South and Penarth in a by-election in 2012 after a controversial selection procedure.

The Western Mail newspaper  reported that Alun Michael had personally intervened with then Labour leader Ed Miliband to ensure that Doughty (who’d originally not even been shortlisted for the seat)  was put on the list.

Alun Michael said at the time “my purpose in doing so was to stop a candidate from outside being imposed on the local party” and claimed he had been attempting to prevent a “stitch-up”.

Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University thinks Labour’s days are numbered

As far as the June 8th General Election is concerned, Professor Roger Scully has already said in the New Statesman  : “For almost a century, general elections in Wales have been about Labour victories. Labour got the most votes in Wales for the first time in the 1922 general election, and it has done so at every general election since then. But this could just be the election where that formidable run comes to an end. Yes, things really are that bad for Labour.”

Professor Scully has now taken the electoral swing since the last General Election  ( as shown in  the first two major UK opinion polls conducted by ICM and YouGov)  and has projected that swing across Wales. By doing that,  he says, it looks as though Labour is set to lose Cardiff South and Penarth on June 8th .

Other seats which the Conservatives could capture from Labour are Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside, Newport West, Newport East and Cardiff West ….as well as Cardiff South & Penarth.

Meanwhile Labour is also apparently set to lose the Island of Anglesey – Ynys Mon – to Plaid Cymru.

A new Welsh opinion poll is due to be published on Monday – the results of which are promised to be “dramatic”.

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  1. AK says:

    Who are the other candidates for the constituency ?

    • NewsNet says:

      As far as we know, no other prospective candidates have yet been nominated for the Cardiff South and Penarth Parliamentary constituency. Nominations don’t close until Thursday 11 May so we may not have the complete list until after that date.

  2. Frank Evans says:

    I wish the sheeple would stop putting a cross next to labour candidate because their grandad did it and he was a nice man.
    Labour stand for wasting money.
    Everyone needs to get he behind a single anti labour candidate whomever he she is.

  3. Lm says:

    Totally agree
    I am from a Midlands ‘Labour’ family but will not be voting for Labour again
    The state of Penarth is abysmal
    I have lived here for 40 + years and it has deteriorated so much in that time
    We need action and that includes the councils as well

  4. david kerslake says:

    Don’t forget that we in Barry are having an incinerater built right next to the waterfront development. You talk about all the money being spent in barry go and have a walk around the town centre its not going to the dogs it went years ago. Place is like a tip. Now we have the vale planning comitee voting to turn down the aldi store again which would see up to 50 jobs brought to the town because it would take trade away from the town centre. WHAT A JOKE/

    • Justin says:

      Why are they voting to turn down Aldi and the 50 jobs? I thought that would have been right up their alley?
      And how is an incinerator allowed on the waterfront development? That’s terrible. 😦

    • Tracey Davies says:

      Wrong! The Vale planning committee as you put it have not voted against it at all. It hasn’t even gone to a planning meeting yet! The planning officers have said it should be refused for genuine reasons, but hopefully the planning ‘committee’ will vote against that and allow Aldi to be built. At least give the full story if you’re going to use that against them

    • Hywel says:

      Seeing as you’re so well up on the Vale’s planning process, Tracey, might I ask what’s happening about the waterfront incinerator? Is that going ahead?

  5. Fishhenge says:

    Barry’s good Victorian housing stock? Improving schools? The schools must be improving, they couldn’t possibly get any worse, the only shining light is the Welsh language secondary school Bro Morgannwg, and you seem to be ignoring other non-Victorian areas such as the aptly named and sprawling Gibbonsdown estate, the Cadoxton stablands etc., not to mention the chemical plant on the way in and the new incinerator right in the centre of town! Certainly not my view of a utopia of the future, nor of many Penarthians I would imagine.

    • Christopher Price says:

      I believe Marcus may have underestimated the Vale’s ambition – it seems they want to further wreck Barry as well as taking Penarth down to meet it.
      Still think the area around Romilly Park is nice though. Wonder what plans the Vale has to pull the rug from beneath the feet of the never-had-it-so-goods living there.
      Why is this council so intent on destroying things people enjoy?
      It’s getting worse every year, really awful.
      That said, the topiary is fantastic in Alexandra Park – all credit and massive thanks to the Parks team, they’ve done an amazing job.
      I know it’s only because it’s the run-up to the elections but still, lovely to see a green space cared for and cherished. It’s the last bit of Eden in Penarth.

  6. Pritchard says:

    Stylish and convincing leaflet from Green’s Anthony Slaughter just come through the door. All good points. My only concern is that he’s not enough of a chopsy all-rounder to keep an eye on runaway Labour.

    • Meursault says:

      I think we all know where this is leading…
      Without even being elected, who has shown a fearless propensity for speaking out on a range of issues?
      Never previously dreamed of voting Plaid Cymru but am looking at who has already:
      1) fronted up to a council visit to Northcliffe on behalf of all those who don’t want a Legoland jumble of sub-modernist shoeboxes to replace one of the town’s few remaining habitats for wildlife.
      2) been go-ahead enough to be pictured in a smog mask on Windsor Road on behalf of Cogan residents due to be choked by yet more fumes come the ludicrous plan to close the town’s community-oriented surgeries in favour of a ‘health super hub’ on tennis courts at the leisure centre.
      3) shaken up the Petri dish which is our current town council by pitching up to demand environmental reports for the sake of everyone in Penarth.
      4) spoken out about saving trees in the town -for the benefit of future generations – only to be allegedly barred from the civic society’s ‘tree group’.
      In these increasingly troubled times, and in the run-up to the election, be assured of one certainty: if that fire-starter Greagsby gets elected, it’ll be worth getting down to those town council meetings quicker than you can say ‘Popcorn or Thayers?’
      I doubt she’d hold back. PDN would have months of copy in one sitting. 🙂

      • Thomas says:

        You forgot starting a petition on behalf of the poor wildlife at Cosmeston County Park, about to be destroyed in the first round of crass commercialism by the greedy Vale council.
        Wasn’t it Anne Greagsby who did that?

  7. Tracey Davies says:

    Lol. Hardly “well up”. I’ve just done a bit of research that took all of 5 minutes. Maybe a few on here should try the same otherwise you have a flawed argument if it’s not factually correct.

    • Simon says:

      I take it that’s a “yes” to the waterfront incinerator then. 🙂

    • Tracey Davies says:

      Where did I say yes, Simon? I have no problem with what the plant does personally, but the location is ridiculous so it’s a no from me. What my opinion on that has to do with anything is beyond me

  8. Matthew says:

    People complain about the state of Penarth need to look at the rest of the Vale its the same wherever you go! As David says a massive ugly incinerator is being built down Barry waterfront, the town centre isn’t having the money it needs to keep it looking ok, and they are just chucking up any old housing anywhere to rake in some extra council tax!

    The whole of the Vale is going to the dogs! Only bits that are safe are the little villages where these MP’s/councillors/AM’s/chums live.

  9. Peter Church says:

    New Poll out.
    Conservatives on 40%, up 12 points from January, with Labour at 30% (-3), Plaid Cymru 13% (no change), Lib Dems 8% (-1) and UKIP 6% (-7).

    Maybe we can get rid of Doughty. 🙂

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