The latest ITV News / Cardiff University opinion poll forecasts that Labour candidate Stephen Doughty is now likely to hold-on the constituency of Cardiff South and Penarth.
An earlier poll on April 24th (also carried out for ITV News and Cardiff University) had forecast that the Conservatives could win Cardiff South and Penarth seat – but since that earlier poll has been carried out there appears to have been a 5% increase in the numbers of people who say they intend to vote Labour, and want to see Jeremy Corbyn as Britain’s next Prime Minister.
On May 5/7th the YouGov ‘Welsh Political Barometer’ poll, again asked a scientifically selected sample of people in Wales how they would vote in a General Election . The results are as below with the previous poll results for April alongside: –
- Conservatives: 41% ( up 1%)
- Labour: 35% ( up 5% )
- Plaid Cymru: 11% ( down 2% )
- Liberal Democrats: 7% ( down 1%)
- UKIP: 4% (down 2%)
- Others: 2% (down 2% )
Labour did badly on the previous poll – but this latest one shows a 5% recovery in support. The Corbyn led party is almost back to the share of the vote it had at the 2015 General Election – but the growth in pro-Labour support is coming from Plaid Cymru voters and Liberal Democrats. Both of these smaller parties are being squeezed
If the new poll is correct, the Conservatives would win 20 seats in Wales and become the largest party. Labour would be left with just 16 seats
The Conservatives are still forecast to take the following 9 Westminster seats from Labour – but the list no longer includes Cardiff South and Penarth .
- Alyn & Deeside
- Cardiff West
- Clwyd South
- Newport East
- Newport West
- Ynys Môn