The Labour campaign teams can take-off their specially-designed scarlet windcheaters now, pack away their placards and turn-off their iPhones – no more grinning selfies are now needed on Twitter.
….That’s because the bookies have now decided that the Labour Party – led by Jeremy Corbyn and fielding former colleague Stephen Doughty – will easily hold on to Cardiff South and Penarth – so easily in fact, that there’s no need for Labour to knock on any more doors – it’s in the bag.
The Cardiff South and Penarth odds quoted by bookies William Hill to MediaWales are as follows:-
- 8/15 Labour;
- 11/8 Conservatives;
- 50/1 Plaid Cymru;
- 66/1 Liberal Democrats;
- 150/1 Greens;
- 150/1 UKIP
That’s not to say of course that Labour isn’t facing problems elsewhere in Wales. Across Wales Labour is set to lose 9 seats .
William Hill believes the Conservatives stand to win or hold 18 of the 40 constituencies in Wales – 7 more than at present – are on course for their best result in 1852. The seats set to be won or held by the by the Conservatives are:-
- Alyn and Deeside (gain from Labour):
- Brecon and Radnorshire:
- Bridgend (gain from Labour):
- Cardiff North:
- Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire:
- Clwyd South (gain from Labour):
- Clwyd West:
- Delyn (gain from Labour):
- Newport East (gain from Labour):
- Newport West (gain from Labour):
- Preseli Pembrokeshire:
- Vale of Clwyd:
- Vale of Glamorgan:
- Wrexham (gain from Labour):
But in Cardiff South and Penarth the public-sector professionals, the ethnic voters and the council estates are going to yet again make sure the constituency is held, as it always has been, by Labour – even through the present party is now closer to Karl Marx than the constituency’s first incumbent James Callaghan .
Cardiff Central is expected to be won by the LibDems – pushing former Labour MP Jo Stevens out of a job
Plaid Cymru’s former leader – the re-treaded Ieuan Wyn Jones – is tipped to take Anglesey from Labour.
Rival bookies Ladbrokes paint a similar picture but in Cardiff Central quote odds of
- Labour 10/11
- Liberal Democrat 10/11
- Conservative 16/1
- Green 66/1
- Plaid Cymru 100/1
- UKIP 100/1
Meanwhile there is already a book running on who will be the next Labour Leader – and it’s possible to place an 80/1 bet that it will be Diane Abbott.