The bookies predict Stephen Doughty will hold Cardiff South and Penarth but Jo Stevens will lose Cardiff Central

The Labour campaign teams can take-off their specially-designed scarlet windcheaters now, pack away their placards and turn-off their iPhones –  no more grinning selfies are now needed on  Twitter.

….That’s because the bookies have now decided that the Labour Party – led by Jeremy Corbyn and fielding former colleague Stephen Doughty – will easily hold on to Cardiff South and Penarth – so easily in fact, that there’s no need for Labour to knock on any more doors  – it’s in the bag.

The Cardiff South and Penarth odds quoted by bookies William Hill to MediaWales are as follows:-

  • 8/15 Labour;
  • 11/8 Conservatives;
  • 50/1 Plaid Cymru;
  • 66/1 Liberal Democrats;
  • 150/1 Greens;
  • 150/1 UKIP

That’s not to say of course that Labour isn’t facing problems elsewhere in Wales.  Across Wales Labour is set to lose 9 seats .

William Hill believes the Conservatives stand to win or hold 18 of the 40 constituencies in Wales – 7 more than at present – are on course for their best result in 1852. The seats set to be won or held by the  by the Conservatives are:-

  • Aberconwy:
  • Alyn and Deeside (gain from Labour):
  • Brecon and Radnorshire:
  • Bridgend (gain from Labour):
  • Cardiff North:
  •  Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire:
  • Clwyd South (gain from Labour):
  • Clwyd West:
  • Delyn (gain from Labour):
  • Gower:
  • Monmouth:
  • Montgomeryshire:
  • Newport East (gain from Labour):
  • Newport West (gain from Labour):
  • Preseli Pembrokeshire:
  • Vale of Clwyd:
  • Vale of Glamorgan:
  • Wrexham (gain from Labour):

Labour Prime Minister James Callaghan was the first MP to hold Cardiff South and Penarth

Labour is now closer to Karl Marx

But in Cardiff South and Penarth the  public-sector professionals, the ethnic voters and the council estates are going to yet again make sure the constituency is held,  as it always has been,  by Labour – even through the present party is now  closer to Karl Marx than the constituency’s first incumbent James Callaghan .

Cardiff Central is expected to be won by the LibDems – pushing former Labour MP Jo Stevens out of a job

Plaid Cymru’s former leader – the re-treaded Ieuan Wyn Jones –  is tipped to take Anglesey from Labour.

Rival bookies Ladbrokes paint a similar picture but in Cardiff Central quote odds of

  • Labour 10/11
  • Liberal Democrat 10/11
  • Conservative 16/1
  • Green 66/1
  • Plaid Cymru 100/1
  • UKIP 100/1

Meanwhile there is already a book running on who will be the next Labour Leader  – and it’s possible to place an 80/1 bet that it will be Diane Abbott.

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  1. Local Eye says:

    Get real this a General Election and its all about Brexit. Votes cast for UKIP, Plaid, the Greens are completely irrelevant and yet again we end up with a useless Labour MP. The Tories only have themselves to blame as they are a joke party and this will be another nail in the coffin.

  2. Philip Rapier says:

    Wouldn’t get too excited about Prof. Scilly Ph D. of Llaregub University whose laughable predictions greatly influence the Bookies.
    Cardiff, Swansea, Newport Councils are all still emphatically Labour despite Scilly’s-er -very silly- predictions for the Local Elections.
    Why did Labour win them ? They listened to the Voters
    The Vale of Glamorgan was the only Labour loss on the South East Wales Coast.
    Perhaps they failed to listen
    According to the Penarth Times Website this week they still blame the electorate not themselves
    Penarth Times Website quotes as follows below-
    “Cadoc ward Labour councillor Neil Moore, formerly the Vale council leader, retained his seat with a margin of 33 votes. He confirmed he would remain group leader with Cllr Lis Burnett as deputy leader. They would, he said, be an opposition.”
    “Cllr Neil Moore said: “The result wasn’t unexpected in light of the national picture but we think lots of- scurrilous*- things have been said.” Source Penarth Times
    I had to look up scurrilous to check the word context in the Oxford Dictionary. Apparently it may suggest some of the Electorate are
    :scurrilous (adj)*abusive, vituperative, derogatory, disparaging, denigratory, pejorative, deprecatory, insulting, offensive, defamatory, slanderous, libellous, scandalous, opprobrious, vitriolic, venomous.
    etc etc etc …….

    I have no idea who or which if any of the above definitions they are alleged to be but it begs the question if only we Council Taxpayers were as nice as the Politicians in the Vale of Glamorgan- Penarth would be Utopia!

  3. Louise C says:

    Are you trying to lull labour voters into complacency? This seat will be close, everyone should find the time to vote. It is not a safe seat!

    • Frank Evans says:

      Have you heard the labour manifesto laugh out loud. Spend spend spend.

  4. Barry boy says:

    Public sector workers and council estates!! Bit of a generalisation of labour voters. Sure st Augustine’s and cornerswell which went labour don’t all fit this description

  5. sjleworthy says:

    All i see in penarth gardens are Labour signs

  6. Matthew says:

    Cant understand how anyone can vote for Labours he’s done nothing for Penarth.

    • sjleworthy says:

      The major problem candidates are up against is tradition. People will vote Labour blindly purely because their father and father’s father voted Labour. You cant win against that.

Comments are closed.