Stephen Doughty can now start writing another election acceptance speech. Labour – with its built-in advantage in Cardiff South and Penarth – is forecast to hold the seat at the General Election

The latest public opinion poll –  carried out by  YouGov for Cardiff University’s  so-called “Wales Governance Centre”  and ITV Wales –  forecasts that in the General Election on June 8th Cardiff South and Penarth will remain Labour .

  • The first poll of the campaign had claimed to indicate that the Conservatives could win Cardiff South and Penarth  – despite the demographic which has given Labour the built-in advantage in the constituency ever since it was first established in 1983. The findings of this first poll were greeted with incredulity by seasoned observers.  
  • The second poll however  indicated that Labour would hold on to Cardiff South and Penarth.
  • The  latest poll – the third in the series – confirms the traditional dominant position of Labour, the party’s continuing stranglehold on power in Wales and its retention of Cardiff South and Penarth .  

The red column rises over the rest. In Wales, General Election is virtually all over.

Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University has come in for criticism following his earlier forecasts of a Conservative win in Cardiff South and Penarth

Professor Scully has told Media Wales  : “The most important change from the previous poll is clearly the resurgence in Labour support. This is broadly in line with the Britain-wide polls, which have generally been showing a narrowing of the gap between the Conservatives and Labour in recent days. But the extent of the Labour rise, and Conservative fall, are rather greater in Wales, and are sufficient to put Labour back into a significant lead in Wales.”

The General Election is forecast to leave Labour with one extra seat in Wales;  it’s forecast to win back Gower from the Conservatives.

Professor Scully suggests the Labour surge findings may have been influenced by a “sympathy boost” following the death of former Labour First Minister Rhodri Morgan. [In fact, despite the cloying obituaries broadcast on local media, Rhodri Morgan was ranked at only number 45 in the WalesonLine  list of the “50 most famous people in Wales”]    

Professor Scully says “At least for the moment, Labour seem to be winning the campaign, if not the election as a whole. That is particularly true in Wales. The recent local elections showed the resilience of the Welsh Labour party. Challenged strongly by the Conservatives in this election, Labour seem to be fighting back strongly.”

The latest YouGov poll for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, is based on a sample of 1,025 Welsh adults and was carried out between the dates of May 18th and 21st.

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  1. Peter Church says:

    Oh dear.
    A vote for Stephen Doughty is a vote for Jeremy Corbyn who still won’t directly condemn the IRA atrocities in murdering innocent people, think about the events in Manchester today when you vote.

    • Blue says:

      Your attempt to make political gain out of the atrocity in Manchester is reprehensible.

      • Chris Williamson says:


      • AK says:

        Agreed; a new all time low even by Peter Church’s standards

      • Frank Evans says:

        Hypocrisy. The time to talk about Corbyn’s approval of the IRA is when things like this happen. Try telling the victims of Enniskillen.
        If many think that after terrors attack it’s best not to talk about it then maybe you should pack up and vote a pacifist apologist.

      • Penarth says:

        3 year victims in Warrington would wonder why Corbyn agreed to be photographed with leaders of the time. Similar to Corbyn going to Syria to be photographed with leaders of ISIS today.
        This is relevant to this general election and should not be considered off limits.

      • Anne Greagsby says:

        You can’t take the moral high ground after all the smears about me. Hypercrite.

      • Blue says:

        What smears Anne? That you fell out with Bethan Jenkins and were recruited to Plaid by proven bully McEvoy? That is the truth. Hardly the same as trying to make a political point by exploiting the deaths of innocents. Shame on you for comparing your “outing” to my criticism of Peter Church’s despicable comment.

      • Anne Greagsby says:

        You are a pitiful creature hiding behind an anon name. Clearly you are in no position to judge anyone spreading lies and gossip. Seems you will go to any lengths to smear me for what reason? Your version of events is completely wrong. More than happy to discuss it with you if you find the courage and honour to come out of hiding!

      • Blue says:

        So what have I got wrong? Nothing. Experience has taught me to be very safe when dealing with those who associate with bullies.

  2. andrewsketty says:

    Three times I have tried to contact my newly elected councillors Ruba Sivagnanam & Neil Thomas to arrange to meet them and no response to the e mails and tweets I have sent. I find it unbelievable that we are treated this way and it is no wonder that so many people are so disillusioned with politics at all levels

    Ruba if you are reading this please could you respond to your e mails/twitter feed? Your twitter profile says that you are #listening to Penarth & # standing up for Penarth. So I would like to talk to you!

    • Frank Coupler says:

      She has a couple of alternative names. Maybe you could try those.

      • andrewsketty says:

        I have used her email address which she publicised on her campaign leaflet along with posting 2 tweets to her twitter feed. I can’t quite imagine that a local politician does not routinely check both so I’m not going to search further

        The VoG CC website still doesn’t have the new councillors contact details.

        All very unacceptable

    • St Augustine says:

      Here we go again!

      I got nowhere with Lis Burnett and Gwyn Roberts. I spent 14 months trying to get some simple answers from them both. The really annoying thing was that I was pointing-out how the Council could save a lot of money by enforcing standard planning conditions on large-scale developments, meaning that the tax-payer didn’t have to foot the bill for repairs to roads and pavements caused during construction. Not that the repairs ever take place in Penarth!

      I’m staggered that these Councillors have the nerve to stand for office. They’re supposed to be representing the residents in their ward. They’re actually leeches: blatantly lying about listening to, and standing up for, the people of Penarth, whilst taking our money.

      Andrew, don’t give up. Keep everyone aware of the contempt that these “representives” show towards those that they are supposed to represent.

      • I am writing and following up with the chief exec of Vale and new leader for a meeting and then a public meeting and immediate audit of pacl etc – with those needing to be held to account – held to account: he says we need to wait on the matter, I’m saying absolutely not it’s critical – media being kept up to date

    • Matt says:

      These Councillors are doing passable impressions of parasites. If they are this arrogant after just being elected then they’ll being taking at least £60,000 each, plus expenses, during their term, without doing what they are supposed to do.

  3. Chris David says:

    Wales in the mess it is but still people vote in labour. It has little to with ability, vision, planning etc and everything to do with blind prejudice. Still I’m not convinced any of the opposition would do better but real competition would be healthy.

  4. Ford Prefect says:

    This is good news. Tories are bad for business, bad for our health and bad for the planet.

  5. Barry Shaw says:

    To be honest, this is no surprise as the Tories are not taking the Cardiff South & Penarth Parliamentary Constituency seriously enough to win and fielding a candidate who resides in Banbury, Oxfordshire!

    • Anne Greagsby says:

      And are we sure that Doughty even lives in this constituency? He gives no address. I heard he has a mailing address in Splott but a residence ….where?

  6. Mark Foster says:

    Of course the “democratic” election in Cardiff South and Penarth has no validity because the electorate has been corruptly gerrymandered by the long term immigration strategy of globalists like Peter Mandelson and Tony Blair, in the favour of the Labor candidate Steven Doughty. It is a prostitution of the democratic electoral process disenfranchising the indigenous inhabitants of the UK, and the monarch should step in to deny the vote to anybody who has immigrated to the constituency from outside the UK over the last 20 years.

    • Ford Prefect says:

      Ha! This is dynamite. Is this the start of your novel, or a rewording of extracts from Mein Kampf? Either way, it’s going to be a good yarn, so keep writing it and let us know how it goes.

  7. Anne Greagsby says:

    The one thing the labour party Cllrs are good at is secrecy. They hide from the electorate. If people knew what was really going on they wouldn’t support them. But with local newspapers printing their propaganda there isn’t much hope of that.

Comments are closed.