The latest public opinion poll – carried out by YouGov for Cardiff University’s so-called “Wales Governance Centre” and ITV Wales – forecasts that in the General Election on June 8th Cardiff South and Penarth will remain Labour .
- The first poll of the campaign had claimed to indicate that the Conservatives could win Cardiff South and Penarth – despite the demographic which has given Labour the built-in advantage in the constituency ever since it was first established in 1983. The findings of this first poll were greeted with incredulity by seasoned observers.
- The second poll however indicated that Labour would hold on to Cardiff South and Penarth.
- The latest poll – the third in the series – confirms the traditional dominant position of Labour, the party’s continuing stranglehold on power in Wales and its retention of Cardiff South and Penarth .
Professor Scully has told Media Wales : “The most important change from the previous poll is clearly the resurgence in Labour support. This is broadly in line with the Britain-wide polls, which have generally been showing a narrowing of the gap between the Conservatives and Labour in recent days. But the extent of the Labour rise, and Conservative fall, are rather greater in Wales, and are sufficient to put Labour back into a significant lead in Wales.”
The General Election is forecast to leave Labour with one extra seat in Wales; it’s forecast to win back Gower from the Conservatives.
Professor Scully suggests the Labour surge findings may have been influenced by a “sympathy boost” following the death of former Labour First Minister Rhodri Morgan. [In fact, despite the cloying obituaries broadcast on local media, Rhodri Morgan was ranked at only number 45 in the WalesonLine list of the “50 most famous people in Wales”]
Professor Scully says “At least for the moment, Labour seem to be winning the campaign, if not the election as a whole. That is particularly true in Wales. The recent local elections showed the resilience of the Welsh Labour party. Challenged strongly by the Conservatives in this election, Labour seem to be fighting back strongly.”
The latest YouGov poll for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, is based on a sample of 1,025 Welsh adults and was carried out between the dates of May 18th and 21st.